Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
