Trump Supporters for Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Unexpected Outcomes from NYC’s Election

Only 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as a kind of well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani would win although failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that the left-wing candidate would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored Cuomo, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots added after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where yesterday turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have basically increasing his support from the earlier contest. But Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also a number of supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, limited to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump last year went for the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a huge number of participants. There was a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently you would say he’s likely to get over half. He has 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. Thus it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I hope he does so then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in the borough, similar to an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I think there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

In my view there was a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the property owners and residents supported Cuomo. So there existed a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and even parts of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will come from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

However I think that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities exist.